Climate Change for Dummies

Climate Change is based on three dependent Theories.

Theory One – Green House Gas Theory – the first doubling of Carbon Dioxide content in the atmosphere is predicted to cause up to 1 degree C of warming in the atmosphere due to increased long wave back radiation.  Issues which limit further temperature rise are the logarithmic decline in the amount of back radiation as CO2 concentration increases and overlap/saturation of the back radiation spectrum by existing Water Vapor.  Most people are surprised to hear that the estimated amount of the GHG effect that is attributed to CO2 in the scientific literature is a range from as low as 2 % to as high as 45 %. The amount of effect will vary with latitude, altitude, time of day/night, over land/water, season, cloud cover/type and humidity, etc. so programming the changing effects in a Simulator/Model is very difficult. Most models use equations and relationships which approximates a CO2 effect of 15 to 20%.

Theory Two – Amplification/Positive Feedback Theory – the predicted temperature rise due to increased back radiation is theorized to increase humidity in atmosphere which is predicted to cause 1 to 4 Degrees C of additional warming which is 3 to 4 times as much as the predicted impact of the increase in CO2.  The main issues are that the predicted humidity rise and the resultant temperatures increases have not been observed in the atmosphere by decades of balloon and satellite observations so the Climate Sensitivity to increases in CO2 appears to be over estimated. The largest temperature rise was predicted by the climate models for the Troposphere in latitudes around the equator (20S to 20N)(Search “missing hot spot”).  Climate models also do not do a good job of handling clouds – formation, movement, albedo, etc. and vertical energy transfers like storms and losses to space.

Theory Three – Catastrophic Climate Change Theory – The additional warming from the first two theories is theorized to cause Catastrophic Changes to the Climate and dramatically increase disastrous climate events. Main issues are both the actual Global Temperatures and the rate of temperature increase are running way below Computer Model Forecasts. There has been no statistical increase in global temperatures in the last 19 years and the link between warming and increased climate disasters is not apparent and can not be proven.  There is no scientific link between Mild Warming and Catastrophic Climate Events so if there is only mild warming then no expected increase in catastrophic events. There are also positive benefits of increased CO2 and mild warming such as increased plant growth, less fuel use and less deaths to cold weather

The last two theories are dependent on the previous theory or theories in the series so the Climate Crisis falls down if the estimated effect of any of the theories is reduced.

The Positive Feedback Theory is predicted to cause the majority of the warming but the empirical real world data shows no increased humidity and no statistical increase in global temperatures for the last 19 years despite a 40% rise in CO2 concentration.  Climate Sensitivity forecasts are being reduced as there are now 14 published papers with climate sensitivities below the IPCC AR5 estimates. The lower sensitivities to CO2 are due to increased attribution to Natural Variability. 

CO2 content has risen dramatically and yet temperatures have not. Is Atmospheric CO2 Content Really the Dominant Driver in Global Temperatures?

Do You Really Have No Doubts or Questions about Climate Change?

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