Desperate Hype on 2014 as Record Warm Year

Note the error bar on the “warming” was way larger than the minuscule warming!

The widely anticipated finding deflated — but did not fully dispel — a perception that the rate of warming has slowed since the 1990s. Several scientists noted that 2014 was not a blowout, statistically speaking. The year surpassed the next runners-up by only a few hundredths of a Celsius degree, averaged across the globe. Some also noted that rising temperatures have not kept pace with computer simulations that predicted even faster warming, given the 40-percent rise in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution.

The most important points are that the  satellite temperature sets show no real warming and that the rate of warming is way lower than the models predicted.

Recent warming trends are less than forecast by computer models

DR. Judith Curry is always worth reading for balanced perspective     She is quoted as follows.

“With 2014 essentially tied with 2005 and 2010 for hottest year, this implies that there has been essentially no trend in warming over the past decade,” said Judith Curry, professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “This ‘almost’ record year does not help the growing discrepancy between the climate model projections and the surface temperature observations.”

Estimates of Climate Sensitivity to increase in CO2 content will continue to decrease. The Crisis is hugely over stated.  Even the warmists admit the claim is less likely than not.

Warming year probability

A lot of hype over something that is so marginally warmer that it is only 38 to 48 % probable that it is a record even if it is accurate.

Nice statement by Dr. Roy Spencer 

Some more good comments:

“Whether or not a given year is a hundredth of a degree or so above a previous record is not the issue. What IS the issue is how observed temperatures compare to what has been forecast to happen.”

“John Christy and Richard McNider, from University of Alabama (Huntsville) recently compared climate model projections to observed lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by two independent sources: satellites and weather balloons. They found that the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.”

– Pat Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute


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