The Sky is Falling!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Oh – wrong doomsday.

The Earth is warming! The Earth is warming! Oh – wrong doomsday.  No amount of shrieking about the warmest year ever (only by hundredths of a degree and only on some Surface data sets) will offset the fact that the Model forecasts are too high by 50 to 150% despite large increases in CO2 in the last 25 years.  The models track temperatures before 2000 because they have been matched to that data but forecasts based on high CO2 sensitivity are where the models over forecast temperature increases. Note that surface temperatures are estimated for as much as 60% of the world area versus measured and then adjusted which may be why surface data sets no longer reliably track the satellite temperatures. Climate Sensitivity and specifically positive feed backs to changes in CO2 content in the models appears to be way over estimated.

Models vs reality Nov 2015

The climate is changing! The climate is changing! Oh – the climate has changed for billions of years. There have been hotter periods, worse storms, longer droughts, more hurricanes, higher CO2 levels and so on in history so this is all within the normal range of natural variation.  The earth has warmed up since the little ice age and vast majority of glacier melting occurred long before man added enough CO2 to theoretically affect climate( the 1980’s).  The warming from the positive half of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) from late 80’s to 2005 appears to have been mis-attributed to CO2.

The estimates of Sensitivity are continuously being adjusted down and most estimates are now below the so called safe limit of 2 C. What Crisis?

Climate sensitivity

This hysterical nonsense is way over estimated and over hyped.  Runaway warming is very unlikely and mild warming periods have always been good for humans.


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